Schad's 1976 Agricultural Performance Tables

This is where my "commitment to trading excellence" begins - with the research. I have narrowed down the agricultural markets I plan to trade and am presenting to you the statistics of my trading signals I use in my everyday trading. Each trade includes a $10 "all in" commission deduction. You'll see some of these markets data goes back to July 23, 1976, but some of the markets data - you will notice - only goes as far back as 2005, as in the case of "QM" or mini-Crude Oil. NOTE: I trade mini-gold/mini-silver, but below reflects the "big" contracts. To compensate for this discrepancy, I have replaced the point values of both markets to that of the mini-metals' markets. These statistics are as of September 18, 2009. For the $25K portfolio performance tables, 'click' here.

As you can see below, these are the results from 1976 to September 18, 2009, of combining ALL 13 of the agriculture markets traded. NOTE: I trade mini-gold/mini-silver, but below reflects the "big" contracts. To compensate for this discrepancy, I have replaced the point values of both markets to that of the mini-metals' markets. Again, each trade includes a $10 "all in" commission deduction. With a maximum -$13,340 intraday drawdown since '76, you can understand why I have asserted a minimum account size of $50K to trade the entire agricultural portfolio. For the $25K portfolio performance tables, 'click' here.

I was asked recently "how much could I expect to profit based on past experience." As you may know, Past Performance is not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results, but here are the $50K portfolio results and statistics going back to partial year 1976. The actual "profit" is the third column from the last.

Below are the mini-Crude Oil ("QM") statistics which only go back to mid-June, 2005. This is as far back as Genesis data for this particular symbol provides me - which is fine. As you can see, the accuracy is about 53%, but the average winning trade is approximately twice that of the average losing trade. Just an interesting observation to the facts below...

Below is the Kansas City Wheat ("KW") statistics which go back to July, 1976. What gets me excited here is the very l-o-w drawdown over the course of 30+ years.

Here are the results for the sugar market ("SB"). Again, very l-o-w drawdown over the course of 30+ years.

Here's soymeal ("SM"), also very l-o-w drawdown over the course of 30+ years. The symbol I trade for soymeal, "SM2," denotes both electronic and pit sessions combined. Actually, any symbol which ends in "2" is electronic/pit combined. You'll see more below...

Here's cotton ("CT"), the drawdown picks up a bit here...actually, it doubles. The "profit factor" still makes it worth trading.

Here's live cattle ("LC"), the first of two livestock markets I trade. I will consider "feeder cattle" at the end of this year.

This is the soybean market ("S"). You may see a pattern of higher drawdown with the more historically volatile markets. We saw similar drawdown with cotton and mini-crude oil.

Here's corn ("C"). Going back to lower drawdown, but also lower total net profit. This is a necessary market for my livestock producers who wish to lower feed costs.

This is gold ("GC"), but I actually trade the mini-gold contract - one-third the size of the big gold. To compensate for this discrepancy, I have replaced the point value of "big-gold" to that of the mini-gold market.

Here's soy oil ("BO"). This market can, at times, be trending opposite the parent soybean contract (soymeal too).

This is the silver ("SI") market. Like gold, I also trade the mini-contract here as well - one-fifth the size of big silver. To compensate for this discrepancy, I have replaced the point value of "big-silver" to that of the mini-silver market. This market has last priority in markets I trade...it's #13 of all 13 ag markets traded. No irony in being "#13" either, it still makes money.

Here's the other wheat market ("W"). I will reconsider the priority of this market for 2010 because I have two wheat markets within the first seven on the priority list.

This is lean hogs ("LH"), the second of two livestock markets I trade. I will also consider lowering the priority of this market at the end of this year. I am not too happy with the drawdown vs. total net profit ratio, but hogs continues to be a popular market to trade.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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And there you have it...all 13 markets I last researched and prioritized this past June of 2009, and continue to trade since the mid-90's. As the technology improves with the Genesis trading software, more of the ideas I have for market entry/exit signals will be implemented in my trading strategies. Why don't I trade these ideas anyway...since I see reoccurring patterns materialize and unfold frequently? It is because I am a professional at this business. I know the exact history of my trading signals, and I know my odds going as far back as 1976 with these markets at any given time. To not know the history/odds of other trading signals I have on the back-burner, and trade them anyway, would be akin to degenerate gambling in my view, or participating in an un-controlled experiment. NO...I will just keep doing what I do in the marketplace and improve my performance as the trading software technology improves. I plan on being in this business until my last breathe, so there is never any greedy rush with me. -- Brian

"This publication is strictly the opinion of its writer and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any funds or securities herein named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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