Schad's 1996 Financial Performance Tables

This is where my "commitment to trading excellence" begins - with the research. I have narrowed down the financial markets I plan to trade and am presenting to you the statistics of my trading signals I use in my everyday trading. Each trade includes a $15 "all in" commission deduction. You'll see these markets data goes back to June 24, 1996, but but I would have preferred they go back farther like the T-Notes back to 1982. I chose 1996 because that is one of the last dates one of these contracts debuted and is more than 10 years past. These statistics are as of September 18, 2009.

As you can see below, these are the results from 1996 to September 18, 2009, of combining ALL six of the financial markets traded. Again, each trade includes a $15 "all in" commission deduction. With a maximum -$6,629 intraday drawdown since '96, you can understand why I have asserted a minimum account size of $20K to trade the entire financial portfolio. Some of these markets, such as mini-Russell, mini-NASDAQ, and T-Notes have trades far and few trades in time. BTW, I stopped trading the S&P 500 because the profit factor for the other two stock indices were far superior (than that of the S&P). I am only trading a handful of the very best financial markets with my signals.

I was asked recently "how much could I expect to profit based on past experience." As you may know, Past Performance is not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results, but here are the $20K portfolio results and statistics going back to partial year 1996. The actual "profit" is the third column from the last.

Below are the mini-NASDAQ ("NQ") statistics which only go back to August of 2000. This is as far back as Genesis data for this particular symbol provides me - which is fine. Take a look at these fantastic statistics below...

This is the mini-Russell ("TF") statistics which only go back to January of 2004. This is as far back as Genesis data for this particular symbol provides me - which is fine. As you can see, the accuracy is under 50%, but the average winning trade is almost three times that of the average losing trade. Just an interesting observation to the facts below...

Here are the results for the 10-yr. T-Note market ("TT"). If I had a favorite market, it would be this. I find this market's one-half margin requirement, and usually two-third's the move compared to 30-yr. Treasury Bonds, a better bang for the buck. Strictly my opinion.

This is the mini-Japanese Yen market ("J7"). Very l-o-w drawdown after only 5+ years, and winning trades almost twice as large as the losing ones.

Here are the results for the Eurodollar interest-rate market ("ED"). Sometimes I need to remind myself why I even trade this market - the margin requirements use to be next to nothing. This market is actually tested on the front month of four seasonal contract months. In reality, I trade two deferred contract months out from the front month because the market moves are much more volatile. More volatility and bigger exaggerated moves = bigger profit potential.

Here is the mini-Euro^FX market ("E7"). This market trades less than the mini-JYen, but the average trade is over 25% better. With results going back to 2004 like the mini-Yen, I hope that the drawdown has seen its worse days because it's double that of the mini-Yen with less than half it's trades. It's concerning...

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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And there you have it...all six markets I last researched and prioritized this past June of 2009, and continue to trade. As the technology improves with the Genesis trading software, more of the ideas I have for market entry/exit signals will be implemented in my trading strategies. Why don't I trade these ideas anyway...since I see reoccurring patterns materialize and unfold frequently? It is because I am a professional at this business. I know the exact history of my trading signals, and I know my odds going as far back as 1996 (and longer with some) with these markets at any given time. To not know the history/odds of other trading signals I have on the back-burner, and trade them anyway, would be akin to degenerate gambling in my view, or participating in an un-controlled experiment. NO...I will just keep doing what I do in the marketplace and improve my performance as the trading software technology improves. I plan on being in this business until my last breathe, so there is never any greedy rush with me. -- Brian

"This publication is strictly the opinion of its writer and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any funds or securities herein named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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